The release of US non-farm payroll data on Friday will be the biggest test for Citigroup and JPMorgan, who have boldly bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September. For more than a year, foreign exchange traders have never been as excited as they are now before the release of the US employment report. Options used to measure the trend of the US dollar against major trading partners' exchange rates hit the highest level since March 2023 on the eve of the key non-farm payroll data release. Risk reversal data shows a pervasive bearish sentiment for the US dollar. Since the weaker-than-expected July non-farm payroll data was released on August 2, Citigroup and JPMorgan have predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in both September and November, and by 25 basis points in December. Interest rate swap contracts show that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the September 17-18 meeting is about 35%, but traders and economists believe that a 25 basis point cut is still the most likely.