From cointelegraph by Ciaran Lyons

Onchain options protocol Derive says data shows Ethereum has less than a 10% chance of hitting the much-anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024, despite significant inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) hinting at a looming “supply-side crisis.”

The probability that Ether ETH$3,692.25 will reach $5,000 by Dec. 27 “climbed to 16% at its peak but has recently adjusted down to just over 8%,” Derive head of research Sean Dawson said in a Dec. 10 markets report.

Ether’s chances of reaching $5,000 by the end of the year have fallen by about 50%. Source: Derive.xyz

ETH needs a 37% jump from its current price of $3,669 to reach $5,000, CoinMarketCap shows.

Dawson added that “the trading of calls and puts for ETH is evenly distributed, suggesting a neutral market sentiment.”

‘TradFi is gobbling up cheap ETH’ — trader

Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba holds a different view, saying in a Dec. 10 X post that their “target for ETH is still $5k by the end of this year.”

“Do what you will with that information,” they added.

Meanwhile, in an X post on the same day, Ethereum contributor Eric Conner pointed to the $305 million in Ether ETF daily inflows on Dec. 10 as a signal that a “supply side crisis” is coming.

Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano added that “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH.” 

Of the $305 million in inflows, Fidelity Ethereum Fund accounted for $202.2 million, according to Farside data.